By Av Hundle, Founder, Managing Partner
April 22, 2025 | 3 min read
There’s a global economic shift happening — and Canada isn’t ready.
The U.S. is now focused on re-industrializing, funding its economy through trade, and protecting its middle class. Whether you love Trump or not, the policy makes sense — and it’s working.
Meanwhile, Canada is stuck in neutral. We’ve relied on cheap imports, hollowed out our manufacturing sector, and become dangerously dependent on foreign supply chains. We run chronic deficits, tax productivity, and regulate small businesses into the ground. And all the while, we pretend it’ll be fine if housing stays hot and rates stay low.
That fantasy is ending.
Global trade flows will change if the U.S. is serious about tariffs and economic re-shoring. That means pressure on our exporters, rising input costs, and fewer cheap goods flooding our markets. Pair that with a Canadian dollar that’s already soft — and likely to get softer — and inflation risks are bubbling just beneath the surface.
So, what happens to Canada’s housing market?
Canada’s entire economy has become dangerously reliant on the real estate sector. Household debt levels are through the roof. If bond yields rise — and they very well could if inflation creeps back and the Bank of Canada can’t justify cuts — housing becomes even less affordable. Interest rates aren’t likely to crash the way some are hoping. A few cuts? Yes. But the runway for deep easing is short unless we hit a crisis.
Worse, governments at all levels still treat demand-side pressure as a surprise. We have allowed hundreds of thousands of newcomers into the country without a strategy to build enough homes. Now, builders are being squeezed by high interest rates, high material costs, and policy uncertainty. You don’t fix that with tax credits and incentives. You fix it by thinking like a nation — protecting what we have, producing more of what we need, and putting Canadians first.
It’s time we get serious about self-sufficiency. That means energy. That means manufacturing. That means food security. And yes — it means rethinking housing policy so that families can afford to live where they work, without betting their entire future on interest rates staying low.
The United States is playing offence. Canada is still stuck being polite and reactive. We need leadership that sees the storm coming and does more than patch holes with red tape and subsidies.
Over the next two years, Canadians will feel the impact of years of policy drift. But we still have time to pivot. The playbook is there — it just takes guts to run it.
